Please use this form to submit your study for inclusion into our database. It will be checked by a member of the Innovation Growth Lab team, who may be in contact to ask for more information. Your email address * Your name * Title * The name of the study Short summary The model shows that managers and entrepreneurs make better decisions under uncertainty if they adopt a scientific approach in which they formulate and test theories. A brief description of the project's goals and its current state Abstract <p>The model shows that managers and entrepreneurs make better decisions under uncertainty if they adopt a scientific approach in which they formulate and test theories. The model predicts that<br /> they are more likely to terminate projects with negative returns, commit to projects with positive returns, or pivot to projects with higher returns. These implications are tested by combining the results of four Randomized Control Trials (RCTs) involving 754 start-ups and small-medium enterprises and 10,730 data points over time. The empirical analysis corroborates the predictions of the<br /> model.</p> The full abstract of the study, if available Links https://ssrn.com/abstract=3816857 Links to any published papers and related discussions Authors * Affiliations Academic and other institutes that the authors of the study are members of Delivery partner Organisations involved in delivering the trial, if appropriate Year Year Year199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025 Month MonthJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec Day Day12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031 Journal Journal publishing the study, if available Publication stage * Working Paper Published Ongoing Research Forthcoming Discussion Paper Research theme * Entrepreneurship Innovation Business Growth Country Country or countries where this study took place. Topics What sort of topics does the study cover? Sample attributes Hypotheses / research question Do managers and entrepreneurs make better decisions under uncertainty if they adopt a scientific approach in which they formulate and test theories? Sample Trial population and sample selection In each study, the program was advertised at a national level over multiple online and offline channels, including social media posts, newsletters, magazines and events. To apply to the program, the entrepreneurs were required to provide information about their business, team, and decision-making practices via an online survey and a brief telephone interview. The recruitment campaigns attracted entrepreneurs from different Italian regions (in the first three experiments) and from different parts of England (in the fourth experiment). The final sample includes 754 entrepreneurial firms. Number of treatment groups Size of treatment groups Size of control group Unit of analysis Clustered? Yes No Cluster details Trial attributes Treatment description In all four RCTs, the experimental design involved the same training sessions over a period of about two months, and the collection of data for about one year. All firms received training on how to manage innovation decisions using standard content on innovation management and entrepreneurship. About 80% of the content was the same for both treatment and control groups, including an emphasis on the use of data and evidence to make decisions, the value of experimentation, and the possibility of pivoting. However, the treatment group was exposed to a scientific approach to decision-making. Rounds of data collection Baseline data collection and method A baseline survey was administered to all entrepreneurs prior to the intervention, and the information in the survey was used to check that the observable characteristics were balanced across the treatment and the control groups using balance tests (on the education and experience level, on team size and on the sector). Data collection method and data collected Evaluation Outcome variables <p>Innovation decisions: project termination, radical change to the project (pivot), and performance.</p> Results <p>Firms in the sample pivot at most six times during the observation window. Fifty nine percent of the sample never pivots, and six percent of the firms pivot more than two times. Thirty four percent of the firms terminate their projects within the observation window. The average amount of revenue is EUR 15,538, with large variation in the sample since a substantial number of firms has zero revenue within the observation window. The intervention raises the probability of pivoting once or twice and lowers the probability of not pivoting or pivoting more than twice. Results on the full sample show that on average treated firms earn EUR 6,500.691 more than control firms.</p> Intervention costs Not available. Cost benefit ratio Reference Camuffo, A., Gambardella, A., Messinese, D., Novelli, E., Paolucci, E., & Spina, C. , 2021. A Scientific Approach to Innovation Management: Evidence from Four Field Experiments. Citation for use in academic references
